Capsaicin Hot Patches

Medicaid spend (2025)

Supply fragility

Nothing here is signaling trouble: several manufacturers, no current shortage, no recent serious recalls, stable pricing. In drug supply, boring is the good outcome.

The score counts pressure that is already visible — fewer makers, shortages, recalls, falling prices. 0 means none of it; 100 means all of it at once. Recomputed daily · as of Sep 3, 2026

90-day shortage risk (model v2)

price up 12% YoY · sole-source market

For scale: the typical drug’s chance is about 0.1% — this one is in ordinary territory.

Backtested statistical model over the whole market, not this package alone. Model details →